The power struggle in Egypt is moving at the speed of greased lightening. A draft constitution has been rushed through by a Muslim Brotherhood dominated, elected, Constitutional Assembly (boycotted by others) to beat a move by the Constitutional Court, dominated by Mubarak era judges, to dissolve it. President Mohamed Morsi issued a decree, a few days previously, assuming powers to override the Court in case it attempted to intervene. That is, he protected the Assembly and prevented disruption of constitution writing. Nevertheless, the Court may have ignored the decree and ordered termination, thus creating a constitutional crisis between itself, the President and the Assembly. Hence the rush to draft in extreme haste and pose a fait accompli. Morsi promptly called a referendum on 15 December to ratify the draft.

The Court was forced to climb down because it dared not prevent a referendum by the people, but in pique it has refused to monitor the referendum. My hunch is that the referendum will say ‘yes’. Compared to the Mubarak era, this albeit imperfect instrument, is a great advance. I will select the most important features and explore whether supporting its adoption is proper.

Consider first the complexity of the political universe. The Arab Spring has had the expected outcome, but its processes have been thoroughly unpredictable. Everywhere old dictators have tumbled and in Syria in death throes. This outcome is like fixed and immovable stars, everywhere, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen and soon Syria. In contrast, ground events could not have been more different and unpredictable from case to case. Contrast Tunisia with Libya, Egypt with Syria, or any one with another; the pathways have been incredibly different; Egypt has been the most complex, with surprising twists and turns. A revolution saw off Mubarak, Morsi sent the army back to the barracks. Now the streets, as lively as a carnival, denounce Morsi as a new Pharaoh.

The crucial change in Egypt is not in the structure of the state, which is still fluid and open-ended, but the rise of street power. Gone is fear, the gene is out of the bottle; no one can intimidate or cow down post-revolutionary Egypt. Splendid, but it makes consensus, compromise and agreement on a constitution difficult in a nation so divided. Recall the political kaleidoscope; Morsi polled 51.8% to Ahmed Shafiq’s 48.2% in the June 2012 runoff; in the first round in May, Morsi and Shafiq polled 25% each, while a multitude of radical candidates collected 50% between them.